Latest calibration
Weekly calibration: 2026-09-28
Turbulent Transition: 35.8% probability. 4 accepted primary signals.
L1
12.7%
0
L2
24.6%
-0.3
L3
35.8%
-0.3
L4
16.9%
-0.4
L5
10%
+1
Public observatory record
Weekly AI Futures Calibration Archive
Each record preserves the published probabilities, their changes from the prior calibration, and the primary evidence that cleared our filters. Weeks without a material change remain visible in the timeline without forcing a new article.
Weekly calibration: 2026-09-21
Turbulent Transition: 36.1% probability. 3 accepted primary signals.
L1
12.7%
+0.6
L2
24.9%
-0.7
L3
36.1%
+0.1
L4
17.3%
-0.4
L5
9%
+0.4
Weekly calibration: 2026-09-13
Turbulent Transition: 36% probability. 2 accepted primary signals.
L1
12.1%
+1
L2
25.6%
-0.8
L3
36%
-0.2
L4
17.7%
-0.8
L5
8.6%
+0.8
Weekly calibration: 2026-09-07
Turbulent Transition: 36.2% probability. 3 accepted primary signals.
L1
11.1%
+0.8
L2
26.4%
+0.7
L3
36.2%
-0.3
L4
18.5%
-1
L5
7.8%
-0.2
Weekly calibration: 2026-08-31
Turbulent Transition: 36.5% probability. 5 accepted primary signals.
L1
10.3%
+1
L2
25.7%
-0.5
L3
36.5%
-0.2
L4
19.5%
-0.6
L5
8%
+0.3
Weekly calibration: 2026-08-25
Turbulent Transition: 36.7% probability. 2 accepted primary signals.
L1
9.3%
+0.1
L2
26.2%
+0.8
L3
36.7%
-0.6
L4
20.1%
-0.8
L5
7.7%
+0.5
Weekly calibration: 2026-08-17
Turbulent Transition: 37.3% probability. 6 accepted primary signals.
L1
9.2%
+0.1
L2
25.4%
+0.9
L3
37.3%
-0.2
L4
20.9%
+0.2
L5
7.2%
-1
Published starting point
This first calibration establishes the baseline for the public series.
L1
9.1%
L2
24.5%
L3
37.5%
L4
20.7%
L5
8.2%
Historical series point